The ship Polarstern, now conducting an oceanic experiment. Image: A. Wegener Institute
Hedge fund managers, physicists, PhDs of all stripes….we have an understandable tendency to rely on the knowledge of experts. By their nature, experts concentrate on a narrow slice of knowledge, becoming deeply familiar with the intricacies of a topic, say, credit default swaps or ethanol production. Systems thinking–the art of holistic thinking–tells us that experts are very useful in complicated situations, where cause and effect can be uncovered and results predicted. But in complex situations, when cause and effect are unclear and unintended consequences are rife, the input of experts needs to be tempered by allowing generalists to pool their perspectives and take a larger view, live into possible futures, and be comfortable with not knowing everything. In complex situations, such as climate change or a national economy, there is no solution; only improvement and resilience are possible.
So it is worrisome to learn about an experiment going on right now in the Southern Ocean, near Antarctica. As we sit here, an international team of scientists is dumping 20 tons of iron sulfate over 300 square kilometers (115 sq. miles) of ocean as a kind of fertilizer, to encourage the growth of an algae bloom. This will test whether algae could absorb vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and, by “removing” it (or is it just moving it?), slow the pace of global warming.
When some reports spread about the project and environmentalists voiced concern, the German government suspended the project. However a panel of experts, convened by the government, led to the conclusion that the project “is neither against environmental standards nor the international law in force.” The project is now underway.
The Director of the Institute subsequently defended the project as purely scientific, stating, “I wish to strongly emphasize that our experiment was developed on the basis of purely scientific issues in order to better understand the role of iron in the global climate system. A large number of reports are circulating on the Internet and in the international press claiming that the Alfred Wegener Institute is conducting the experiment to test the geo-engineering option of ocean fertilization as a means to sequester large quantities of carbon oxide from the atmosphere. This is definitely not the case.” Hmmm.
What to do? Shut down experiments aimed at curbing global warming or understanding oceanic cycles? Stop trying to find ways of mitigating climate change? There is growing discussion these days about the need for back-up plans, including a post by James Kanter on The New York Times’ Green Inc. blog with some interesting comments. A serio-comic look at “geoengineering” on YouTube may strike some as juvenile, but its mockery of the “gee whiz, scientists will fix it” mindset makes a good point. Performance artist Laurie Anderson makes the same point, with more irony and way more finesse, in her piece from Homeland entitled, “Only an Expert Can Deal with the Problem.”
It is up to us, the general public, who are freed from the silos of “expertise,” to ask the tough questions, track results and actions in the oceans (that belong to no one, and hence to all of us) and beware of experts’ hubris. Pride goeth before a fall, and in the case of some “experiments,” the fall could hurt us all.
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